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The Hidden Structure of Energy Efficiency Finance

Working paper
Nadia Ameli, Sumit Kothari, Giacomo Livan, Guido Caldarelli
Ameli, Nadia and Kothari, Sumit and Livan, Giacomo and Caldarelli, Guido, The Hidden Structure of Energy Efficiency Finance (2021).

Abstract

The broader financial system plays a key role in channeling capitals towards energy efficiency technologies to meet the climate goals. In this study, we analyse the market for energy efficiency finance as a complex system, where interactions of heterogeneous investors give rise to large scale investment trends. By analysing the investment system as an evolving network of inter-linked investors, this study identifies the key actors that have directed investment flows in energy efficiency technologies, patterns of investors’ interactions in terms of co-investments and the evolution of the investment landscape. These elements are critical to deploy instruments of public finance and policy effectively to accelerate the energy efficiency technologies deployment.

 

Keywords:

  • energy efficiency investments
  • financial networks
  • low-carbon finance

Accelerating institutional funding of low-carbon investment: The potential for an investment emissions intensity tax

Journal paper
David Donnelly, Marie Fricaudet, Nadia Ameli
Donnelly, D., Fricaudet, M., & Ameli, N. (2023). Accelerating institutional funding of low-carbon investment: The potential for an investment emissions intensity tax. Ecological Economics, 207, 107755.

Abstract

To encourage a step change in private finance for low-carbon investment, we examine the potential of taxing institutional investment funds (investment emissions intensity taxation, IEIT) if the emissions intensity of their portfolios exceeds specified thresholds. We examine how IEIT would impacts assets’ relative expected rates of return, using a hypothetical diversified portfolio comprising the constituents of a leading market index. IEIT exerts a price influence on the flow of corporate capital expenditures financed either by capital-raising or by corporate retained earnings, encouraging both standalone low-carbon projects and more energy-efficient replacement of process-embedded fixed assets. IEIT must be a forward-looking tax with a pre-specified profile of reducing emissions intensity threshold levels to avoid potential offshoring of investment due to its significant impact on the cost of capital for high emissions intensity companies. IEIT challenges regulated investors to match their net zero declarations with actions, and acts as a policy backstop if emissions trading prices and coverage remain too low, or in case climate risk disclosure and investment taxonomy policies alone do not shift investment behaviours sufficiently.

 

Keywords:

  • investors taxation
  • emissions intensity
  • low-carbon finance

The internal dynamics of fast-growing wind finance markets

Journal paper
Jamie Rickman, Francesca Larosa, Nadia Ameli
Rickman J., F. Larosa, N. Ameli (2022) “The internal dynamics of fast-growing wind finance markets”. Journal of Cleaner Production

Abstract

Rapidly mobilising finance from a wide variety of sources is crucial for scaling up wind deployment and enabling the clean energy transition. To do so will require an understanding how investors co-invest in wind project finance markets and how internal market dynamics align with rapid growth in deployment. Our analysis of the largest, mature wind markets globally shows that internal market dynamics matter for the pace of growth. We observe a common pathway to fast growth whereby a small set of experienced debt providers, predominantly commercial banks, support a major fraction of all lending activity. These critical investors ascend to prominent positions in the market through a positive feedback process whereby more experienced lenders are more likely to attract new equity partners and this ‘financial learning’ spurs virtuous cycles of investment. Our results suggest strategic action to boost project finance investments entails leveraging positive feedback dynamics and supporting systemically important lenders.

 

Keywords:

  • wind assets
  • networks
  • climate finance

Finding the right partners? Examining inequalities in the global investment landscape of hydropower

Journal paper
Francesca Larosa, Jamie Rickman, Nadia Ameli
Larosa, F., Rickman, J., & Ameli, N. (2022). Finding the right partners? Examining inequalities in the global investment landscape of hydropower. Global Environmental Change, 74, 102518.

Abstract

Clean and affordable energy is crucial to achieve a sustainable future. Despite being controversial, hydropower remains the predominant low-cost and reliable source of energy at global level, as it stabilizes the provision of electricity and it bears the power peaks without losing efficiency. However, hydropower requires huge upfront investments and patient functional capital. Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to direct financial capital flows towards a low-emission pathway in order to enable the transition. Furthermore, private capital strongly engaged with a transition towards a climate-smart economy. The aim of this work is to study the investment system behind hydropower, investors’ behaviour and the optimal allocation of finance to favour the deployment of capital flows. We use Bloomberg Energy Finance database to track public–private investments over the past century (1903–2020). We use network models to represent the hydropower project financing landscape as a network of co-investments. We find that investors are highly localized, with continental players mostly interacting with counterparts in the same area of the world. Powerful exceptions are international organisations and multilateral banks which coinvest across the globe. They also tend to support low-income and fragile countries, meeting their mandate of sustainable development champions. Multilateral banks and international organisations are the most critical actors in enabling public–private co-investments; they activate partnerships with a wider diversity of investors within the network creating more opportunities for blended finance tools. Our results offer a novel perspective on finance for the energy transition: it challenges the idea that more capital invested is better and calls for a more efficient allocation of the available resources.

 

Keywords:

  • hydro investment
  • public–private partnerships
  • climate finance

Misplaced expectations from climate disclosure initiatives

Journal paper
Ameli N., S. Kothari, M. Grubb
Ameli, N., Kothari, S., & Grubb, M. (2021). Misplaced expectations from climate disclosure initiatives. Nature Climate Change, 11(11), 917-924.

Abstract

The financial sector’s response to pressures around climate change has emphasized the role of disclosure, notably through the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. This Perspective examines two dimensions of the expectations behind transparency and disclosure initiatives: the belief that disinvestment is driven by disclosure; and that investment ‘switches’ from high- to low-carbon assets. We warn about the risk of disappointment from inflated expectations about what transparency can really deliver and suggest some areas that research and public policy should examine to mobilize the required capital to meet climate goals.

 

Keywords:

  • climate disclosure
  • low-carbon investment
  • climate finance

Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies

Journal paper
Ameli N., O. Dessens, M. Winning, J. Cronin, H. Chenet, P. Drummond, A. Calzadilla, G. Anandarajah, M. Grubb
Nat Commun 12, 4046 (2021)

Abstract

Finance is vital for the green energy transition, but access to low cost finance is uneven as the cost of capital differs substantially between regions. This study shows how modelled decarbonisation pathways for developing economies are disproportionately impacted by different weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions. For example, representing regionally-specific WACC values indicates 35% lower green electricity production in Africa for a cost-optimal 2 °C pathway than when regional considerations are ignored. Moreover, policy interventions lowering WACC values for low-carbon and high-carbon technologies by 2050 would allow Africa to reach net-zero emissions approximately 10 years earlier than when the cost of capital reduction is not considered. A climate investment trap arises for developing economies when climate-related investments remain chronically insufficient. Current finance frameworks present barriers to these finance flows and radical changes are needed so that capital is more equitably distributed.

 

Keywords:

  • WACC
  • low-carbon investment
  • climate investment trap
  • developing economies
  • climate finance

Climate finance and disclosure for institutional investors: why transparency is not enough

Journal paper
Nadia Ameli, Paul Drummond, Alexander Bisaro, Michael Grubb, Hugues Chenet
Ameli, N., Drummond, P., Bisaro, A., Grubb, M., & Chenet, H. (2020). Climate finance and disclosure for institutional investors: why transparency is not enough. Climatic Change, 160, 565-589.

Abstract

The finance sector’s response to pressures around climate change has emphasized disclosure, notably through the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). The implicit assumption—that if risks are fully revealed, finance will respond rationally and in ways aligned with the public interest—is rooted in the “efficient market hypothesis” (EMH) applied to the finance sector and its perception of climate policy. For low carbon investment, particular hopes have been placed on the role of institutional investors, given the apparent matching of their assets and liabilities with the long timescales of climate change. We both explain theoretical frameworks (grounded in the “three domains”, namely satisficing, optimizing, and transforming) and use empirical evidence (from a survey of institutional investors), to show that the EMH is unsupported by either theory or evidence: it follows that transparency alone will be an inadequate response. To some extent, transparency can address behavioural biases (first domain characteristics), and improving pricing and market efficiency (second domain); however, the strategic (third domain) limitations of EMH are more serious. We argue that whilst transparency can help, on its own it is a very long way from an adequate response to the challenges of ‘aligning institutional climate finance’.

 

Keywords:

  • institutional investors
  • low-carbon investment
  • disclosure
  • efficient markets hypothesis
  • climate finance

Can the US keep the PACE? A natural experiment in accelerating the growth of solar electricity

Journal paper
Nadia Ameli, Mauro Pisu, Daniel M. Kammen
Applied Energy 191 (2017) 163–169

Abstract

Growing global awareness of climate change has ushered in a new era demanding policy, financial and behavioural innovations to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy. Dramatic price decreases in solar photovoltaics (PV) and public policy have underwritten the expansion of solar power, now accounting for the largest share of renewable energy in California and rising fast in other countries, such as Germany and Italy. Governments’ efforts to expand solar generation base and integrate it into municipal, regional, and national energy systems, have spawned several programs that require rigorous policy evaluations to assess their effectiveness, costs and contribution to Paris Agreement’s goals. In this study, we exploit a natural experiment in northern California to test the capacity of Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) to promote PV investment. PACE has been highly cost effective by more than doubling residential PV installations.

Keywords:

  • policy evaluation
  • solar PV
  • PACE
  • regression discontinuity
  • residential solar energy

What Impedes Household Investment in Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy?

Journal paper
Ameli N., N. Brandt
International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 2015, 8: 1–39

Abstract

Energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies provide important opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, households fail to take up many clean energy investments that are cost-effective. This article reviews different explanations for apparent underinvestment in energy efficiency that have been put forward in the literature. While investments in renewable energy technologies are typically not (yet) profitable, many of its drivers are similar to those that determine energy efficiency investments, and the two types of investment are therefore assessed jointly. The article also provides new evidence regarding barriers to investment in energy efficiency based on the OECD Survey on Household Environmental Behaviour and Attitudes. Finally, policy solutions that would help overcome some of these barriers are also presented.

Keywords:

  • energy efficiency gap
  • market failures
  • behavioural failures

Con La Domotica l’Innovazione Prende Casa

Energy magazine
Ameli N.
Nuova Energia vol 1 (2010), pp 90-93

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Financing Districts

Energy magazine
Ameli N., D. M. Kammen
Nuova Energia vol 5 (2010), pp 56-63

PACE per il Clima

Energy magazine
Ameli N., D. M. Kammen
Qualenergia vol 6 (2011), pp 67-71

The Linkage Between Income Distribution and Clean Energy Investments: Addressing Financing Cost

Working paper
Ameli N., D.M. Kammen
FEEM Working Papers vol 10 (2012)

Abstract

With a focus on alternative methods for accelerating clean energy policy adoption, this study introduces an innovative financing scheme for renewable and energy efficiency deployment. Financing barriers represent a notable obstacle for energy improvements and this is particularly the case for low-income households. Limited access to credit, due to socio-economic status and the lack of guarantees, are key issues related to financing barriers. Implementing a policy such as PACE – Property Assessed Clean Energy – allows for the provision of up-front funds for residential property owners to install electric and thermal solar systems and make energy-efficiency improvements to their buildings. This paper will inform the design of better policies tailored to the creation of the appropriate conditions for such investments to occur, especially when the lack of access to capital tends to stall them.

 

Keywords:

  • financing barriers
  • energy efficiency
  • solar PV
  • energy investments

Does Income Distribution Affect Energy Investments?

Working paper
Ameli N., D. M. Kammen
Review of Environment Energy and Economics, Re3 Energy

Determinants of households' investment in energy efficiency and renewables - Evidence from the OECD survey on household environmental behaviour and attitudes

Journal paper
Ameli N., N. Brandt
Environmental Research Letters 10 (2015) 044015

Abstract

This paper provides novel evidence on the main factors behind consumer choices regarding investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies using the OECD Survey on Household Environmental Behaviour and Attitudes. The empirical analysis is based on the estimation of binary logit regression models. Empirical results suggest that households’ propensity to invest in clean energy technologies depends mainly on home ownership, income, social context and household energy conservation practices. Indeed, home owners and high-income households are more likely to invest than renters and low-income households. In addition, environmental attitudes and beliefs, as manifest in energy conservation practices or membership in an environmental non-governmental organisation, also play a relevant role in technology adoption.

 

Keywords:

  • technology adoption
  • energy efficiency
  • consumer behavior
  • discrete choice

Innovations in Financing that Drive Cost Parity for Long-term Energy Sustainability: An Assessment of Italy, Europe’s Fastest Growing Solar Energy Market

Journal paper
Ameli N., D. M. Kammen
Energy for Sustainable Development Volume 19 (2014), Pages 130–137

Abstract

Subsidy programs, such as feed-in tariffs, designed to make renewable technologies cost competitive with fossil fuels in electricity generation, have been effective in a number of nations. However, these subsidies can become very costly and they raise questions whether there are fair conditions for competition for different energy sources. As a result even effective programs face an uncertain future, changes in political support following the financial crises in Europe and the United States have demonstrated. In the case of solar photovoltaic energy, cost declines resulting from market-expansion schemes and the overall reductions in the price of photovoltaic cells have been significant particularly over the past decade. Yet, they have still left solar power up to 50% more expensive than conventional options. As an alternative in this paper we describe a financing tool based on a pollution abatement methodology. In developing this levelized cost of electricity framework we build a methodology to examine, and then utilize, the social costs and impacts of energy generation technologies. We find that as a means to bridge the cost gap between current conventional energy process and retail solar energy, a program based on a Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) loan program would, in the short-term, be an effective tool to accelerate grid parity between solar and conventional energy generation and in the long-term provides a theoretically and financially sound alternative to subsidy-based incentives.

 

Keywords:

  • grid parity
  • levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
  • financing schemes
  • solar photovoltaics

Clean Energy Deployment: Addressing Financing Cost

Journal paper
Ameli N., D. M. Kammen
Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012) 034008

Abstract

New methods are needed to accelerate clean energy policy adoption. To that end, this study proposes an innovative financing scheme for renewable and energy efficiency deployment. Financing barriers represent a notable obstacle for energy improvements and this is particularly the case for low income households. Implementing a policy such as PACE—property assessed clean energy—allows for the provision of upfront funds for residential property owners to install electric and thermal solar systems and make energy efficiency improvements to their buildings. This paper will inform the design of better policies tailored to the creation of the appropriate conditions for such investments to occur, especially in those countries where most of the population belongs to the low–middle income range facing financial constraints.

 

Keywords:

  • financing barriers
  • energy efficiency
  • solar photovoltaic
  • energy investments

Optimization Building Management

Journal paper
Ameli N., G. Gregori
Journal of Energy and Power Engineering 6 (2012), 391-396

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how achieving optimal integration between design and energy resources management can be particularly attractive in terms of energy consumption saving (cooling and heating) and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. The building automation system is based on innovative middleware framework which simplifies the modeling of a software for intelligent management of buildings and allows a multistandard and multiprotocol integration of sensors and actuators. The project has the target of underlining the economical opportunities and perspectives concerning the smart system adoption. Estimating the effects of home automation is essential to help its implementation, especially now that energy cost represents a consistent part of the house/building consumptions and will increase in the next few years. The results of the framework application in a residential building proves the validity of the proposed solution.

 

Keywords:

  • building automation
  • smart system

Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles

Working paper
M. Catenacci, E. Verdolini, V. Bosetti, G. Fiorese, N. Ameli
FEEM Working Papers vol 93 (2012)

Abstract

The paper describes the results of a survey, carried out with leading EU experts, on the capacity of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to reach commercial success in the next twenty years. The success of electric transport is hampered by a combination of low range, scarce efficiency and high costs of batteries. Costs are expected to decrease in response to increasing sales volume and technical improvements, and advances would result from adequate investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D). Experts’ judgements are collected to shed light on the inherently uncertain relationship between RD&D efforts and consequent technical progress, and to assess the complex dynamics that will hinder or support the widespread diffusion of electric vehicles. The analysis of the experts’ data results in a number of important policy recommendations to guide future RD&D choices and target commitments both for the EU and its member states.

 

Keywords:

  • expert elicitation
  • battery technologies
  • electric vehicles